A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
